A mere 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason for Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. As Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six games, are somehow only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
That’s a rather hard question to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
According to Opta, on just two occasions has the side had an xG notably superior than the other team. For a side who have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – yet right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to bail them out with some crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, curled right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition registered more shots and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge they will encounter in the near future. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
